Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

368
FXUS61 KAKQ 081048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
648 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north across the region today. Thunderstorms
are possible this morning, with more numerous storms expected
during the afternoon and evening. Severe weather is possible,
especially near the front. Drier weather returns on Monday,
with increasing storm chances again on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again today
  as a frontal boundary lingers across the region.

- Severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts being the
  main threat. A brief tornado or two is possible near the warm
  front.

Morning wx analysis shows zonal flow aloft over the eastern
CONUS with a fast moving, but potent shortwave approaching the
central Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure is over
KY/IN/OH with a warm front extending SE into central/southern
VA. Isolated to scattered tstms have developed near the front.
Also, radar mosaic clearly shows a remnant MCV now over SE VA/NE
NC that has helped trigger storms. In fact, we have had a severe
storm that has tracked from Emporia to Southampton County in the
last hour and a half. Another MCV was noted across wrn VA
(which is what the HRRR has been keying in on for a potential
late morning-midday severe storm or two near the warm front).

Still looks like a complicated forecast with more uncertainty than
normal given that 1) multiple remnant MCVs that will cross the area
in advance of the actual shortwave (which is progged to track over
VA/MD this evening...and 2)uncertainty regarding the eventual
position of the warm front. Regardless, the front continues to move
north today before stalling as secondary low pressure develops and
tracks from W-E along it. The first round of isolated to scattered
convection (which will begin shortly) is expected to continue
through much of the morning. Most of this will remain sub-severe,
although a severe storm or two is possible if cells can track along
the front (which will likely be located INVOF the I-64 Corridor).
Despite the unfavorable time in the diurnal cycle, there will be 750-
1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and ~40 kt of effective shear along/south of the
front this morning (with some enhanced LLVL SRH due to backing of
the winds along the front). However, a limiting factor for tornadoes
this morning is the fact that 925-850 winds will be weak (10-20 kt).
A minority of CAMs, including the HRRR, show the possibility of mid
AM-midday severe wx. Then, the front will try to move a bit farther
north this aftn. And ultimately, the position of the front this
afternoon/evening will dictate where the highest severe threat is.

Am still expecting a second round of convection (with a higher
amount of coverage...especially near the front) between 2-10 PM.
Expect a decent amount of surface heating south of the front this
afternoon with temps well into the 80s expected S of I-64. Mid-upper
70s are forecast across northern portions of the FA. This, combined
with lower 70s dew points, will allow for MLCAPE to increase to
~2000 J/kg by the afternoon. There will also be fairly strong deep
layer shear (which should be sufficient for at least transient
supercell structures) and a modest increase in 925-850 mb winds
ahead of the surface low. The above factors will allow for an
increased severe wx threat. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
threat, although large hail is also possible with some cellular
convection and mid-level lapse rates up to 6.5C/km. Continue to be
concerned about a tornado threat near the warm front where winds
will be locally backed, resulting in 100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH in a
narrow corridor near the front (which will likely be near or just N
of the I-64 Corridor by the aftn). SPC has maintained the Slight
(Level 2/5) Risk for the entire FA, with a 5% tornado risk/15% hail
risk for areas near the front.

Will also have to watch for a flooding threat with both the morning
and afternoon/evening rounds of convection as storms could
potentially train along the warm front. With PWs surging to near
2.0", any storm will be capable of producing a quick 2-3" of rain.
However, there is still some uncertainty with respect to the exact
position of the warm front and flash flood guidance values are
relatively high outside of urban areas. The HREF does have a 10% chc
of 3" of rain in 3 hours with the morning and aftn/evening
convection. Will hold off on any Flood Watch as FFGs outside of
urban areas are high and there is still some uncertainity with
respect to the exact position of the front. There is still a
possibility of a short-fused Flood Watch if confidence increases.
WPC has maintained the Slight (2/4) Risk for excessive rainfall with
a Marginal (1/4) Risk elsewhere. Expect a decrease in storms after 9-
10 PM with precip chances ending by 12-2 AM. Lows tonight fall into
the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather is expected on Monday, although isolated
  afternoon/evening storms can`t be ruled out (especially SE).

- Scattered to numerous storms are possible Tuesday with a few
  strong storms possible.

By Monday, PWs fall to 1.1-1.4" with modest height rises expected
during the day in the wake of the shortwave while the surface front
washes out over the FA. Therefore, PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with
the exception of 20-30% near the Albemarle Sound. Then, a dampening
shortwave trough approaches from the west Monday night before
crossing the FA on Tue. A surface cold front pushes across the
region on Tue as well. Scattered showers/tstms are possible as early
as Monday night, with better chances Tuesday afternoon and evening
(especially east of I-95). Storms Monday night should be sub-severe
though severe wx is possible Tue aftn/evening given ample
instability and shear and the favorable location of the trough. The
main threat will likely be damaging wind gusts. Temperatures will be
near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Drier weather arrives midweek with shower/storm chances returning
  Friday into the weekend.

Surface high pressure builds in Wed into Thu...while a ridge aloft
also builds from the Deep South to southern Mid-Atlantic. This will
allow for mostly dry weather. The only exception to the dry wx on
Wed/Thu is a slight chc of a tstm near the Albemarle Sound Wed
aftn/evening. Isolated aftn/evening storm chances return on Friday
and increase next weekend as the ridge becomes suppressed to our
S/SE. Temps will be near normal Tue, trending above normal later in
the week with highs in the lower 90s possible Thu-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

Mainly VFR to MVFR CIGs prevail at the terminals with showers.
So far, tstms have remained away from the terminals but can`t
rule out a tstm at RIC/ORF/PHF as early as late morning-midday.
In addition, CIGs likely drop to 1000-2000 ft at most of the
terminals by 14z with IFR CIGs expected at SBY by late morning.
Another round of scattered-numerous storms then looks to occur
this afternoon/evening (with the highest probs at RIC/SBY/ORF).
Some of the storms could be severe this aftn/evening. CIGs are
expected to remain MVFR through the day with IFR CIGs expected
through much of the period at SBY. Convection moves out of the
area between 01-04z tonight, but IFR stratus (and perhaps some
fog) is possible at all terminals by early Mon AM.

Outlook: Degraded flying conditions linger into Mon morning
with improving conditions expected Mon. Generally dry conditions
are expected Mon with additional scattered showers and storms
moving through on Tue with flight restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to
  continue into next week.

- Potential for scattered strong thunderstorms to impact the waters
  again today.

Weak low pressure is noted near central NC into southern VA early
this morning with slightly deeper low pressure to the WNW over
the Ohio River Valley. Winds remain very light across the waters
with most observations showing less than 5 kts. Waves are
around 1 foot with seas 2-3 ft.

Expect the period of largely benign marine conditions to continue
today and well into next week. Several weak areas of low pressure
are expected to form along a stalled frontal boundary through
Tuesday before the front is finally able to drop south of the local
waters. The front will bisect the area today with NE or ENE winds to
the north of the boundary and S to SE winds to the south. Winds will
generally stay in the 5-10 kt range but could briefly strengthen to
10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon into the evening as
sea breeze circulations near shore augment the weak synoptic
flow. The main concern for today will come from the potential
for several rounds of strong/severe storms. 00z guidance shows 2
possible maxima in convective activity today, one could form
inland early this morning and move offshore prior to midday with
another round possible late this afternoon into this evening
hours. Confidence in convective timing and coverage remains
quite low but just about any period after sunrise has the
potential to support some stronger convection and associated
gusty wind hazards over the waters. Outside of convective
impacts, conditions will remain sub-SCA through early next week.
Guidance suggests a somewhat stronger area of low pressure may
form along the front on Tuesday and allow the boundary to slip
south of the local waters as the low moves offshore. Some
enhanced SW flow (~15 kt) is possible ahead of the frontal
passage but widespread SCA conditions are unlikely.


Moderate rip currents remains in the forecast for the northern
beaches today with a low rip risk expected area wide on Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RHR